Geopolitical FX

We monitor and analyze: International conflicts (wars, territorial disputes), elections and political transitions, trade wars and sanctions, regulatory changes (financial/capital controls), sovereign crises, and diplomatic tensions. Each event is assessed for potential currency volatility, safe-haven flows, and regional market contagion risks.

We combine: 1) Volatility scoring (forecasted vs actual price swings), 2) Correlation analysis (safe-haven JPY/CHF vs risk-sensitive AUD/MXN), 3) Liquidity metrics during crisis events, and 4) Option market pricing (risk reversals, implied vol). This quantifies both immediate spikes and structural shifts in currency behavior.

Yes. Emerging markets are a core focus. We analyze: Sovereign default risks, commodity export dependencies, capital flight triggers, and central bank intervention capabilities for currencies like TRY, ZAR, BRL, and INR. Reports include early-warning indicators for political instability in key EMs.

Critical updates are published within 60 minutes of major events (elections, attacks, sanctions). We provide: 1) Immediate FX impact assessment, 2) Technical levels for volatility breakouts, and 3) Contingency scenarios. Follow-up strategic analysis examines longer-term implications within 24 hours.

We identify: 1) Safe-haven pairs (long JPY/CHF during conflicts), 2) Volatility breakouts (option straddles, momentum plays), 3) Carry trade unwinds, 4) Commodity-currency hedges (e.g., CAD vs oil shocks), and 5) Divergence plays between politically stable/unstable economies. Each strategy includes precise entry/exit levels.

We track: Capital control implementations, sanctions on financial systems (SWIFT restrictions), CBDC developments, and cross-border payment regulations. These alter currency liquidity corridors and create regulatory arbitrage opportunities – particularly for CNY, RUB, and sanction-exposed currencies.